Dynamic Evaluation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Energy Renovation of a School in a Mediterranean Climate

This paper addresses the effects of long-term climate change on retrofit actions on a school building located in a Mediterranean climate. Dynamic energy simulations were performed using Termolog EpiX 11, first with conventional climate data and then with future year climate data exported from the CCWorldWeatherGen computational software. To date, many incentive actions are promoted for school renovations, but are these measures effective in preventing the discomfort that will be found due to overheating generated by climate change? Today, one of the main objectives in retrofit measures is the achievement of ZEB (Zero Energy Building) performance. Achieving this target requires first and foremost a high-performance envelope. This study evaluates the impact of retrofit strategies mostly applied to the school building envelope, over the years, considering three different time horizons, until 2080. Thermal performance indices and indoor operative temperature under free-floating were evaluated. The results highlight that, with a changing climate, it is no longer possible to assume a constant static condition to evaluate retrofit actions, but it is necessary to develop a predictive mathematical model that considers the design variability for future years. There is an urgent necessity to ensure both the safety and comfort of buildings while also anticipating future variations in climate.