Relationship between shape and energy performance of buildings under long-term climate change

The Mediterranean basin is projected to experience the most significant effects of global warming in Europe. As climate change intensifies, resulting in hotter and lengthier summers, there will be a substantial rise in the demand for cooling systems. This study investigates the influence of the surface -to -volume ratio (S/V) in mitigating the impact of climate change on energy performance in Italian buildings, highlighting its often -overlooked status in current research and methodologies. Three different S/V ratio are considered to evaluate the building thermal performance (EPtot, nd) in compliance with the main Italian energy policies (issued in 2005, 2015, 2020) and three different representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The investigation encompasses all national climate zones in Italy. Results vary in relation to national climate zone (from A to F) and standards considered. When comparing EPtot,nd values in 2030 to the ones of 2050 and 2070, hot regions (Zones A, B and C) show an increase in EPtot,nd, reaching a maximum of 20 %, with minimal differences in almost every scenario. The climate zone D displays a varied behavior in EPtot,nd demand, with a trend of reduction for smaller S/V ratios. In climatic zone E, the EPtot,nd demand varies; if there is an increase compared to 2030, it is slight (up to 10 %), and this increase is further mitigated with a low S/V ratio. The cold climate zone F shows a slight reduction in the demand for EPtot,nd in 2050 and 2070, compared to the values required in 2030.