A spatial analysis of the influence of the foreign population on ageing in Italy

Italy is experiencing an intense demographic aging process, mostly driven by a declining fertility and increasing longevity. The presence of the foreign population is often mentioned as a potential counterbalancing factor, but its actual impact on the age structure remains a matter of debate. This paper aims to explore whether, how and to what extent the effect of the foreign population on demographic aging varies over a territory. Unlike previous studies focusing on national-level effects, this analysis looks at municipal variations over time, offering a more detailed understanding of how foreign presence influences local aging processes. The analysis is based on municipal-level data provided by Istat and covers the period 2002–2022. The dependent variable is the proportion of the elderly population (65+) in relation to the total resident population. The analysis is conducted using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models to investigate the factors influencing demographic ageing across Italian municipalities. The main explanatory variables include the proportion of foreign citizens (hereafter referred to as foreigners) in the population, the median age of the foreign population, and demographic behaviours such as the Crude Birth Rate of foreign women and the Internal Migration Rate of foreign citizens. The models also control for other demographic factors, including life expectancy for women and men, the Crude Birth Rate of Italian women, and the Internal Migration Rate of Italian citizens. The analysis shows that the impact of the foreign population on demographic ageing varies significantly across municipalities and over time, highlighting spatial and temporal heterogeneity in these effects.